Ahhh... it's opening day for the Minnesota Twins. This is always a great day, getting to watch that first game of the season (even though it will be interrupted by watching Butler and Duke battle it out for the NCAA Basketball Championship).
There is a much higher than normal energy about these Twins this year. Part of that is obviously the new stadium they get to play in this year. Another part of that is for the first time since I can remember, the front office actually went out and got some good players in free agency.
Baseball is a beautiful and boring game. I LOVE watching the Twins, but can't really bring myself to watch any other games like I can with Football and Hockey. Baseball is also a very maddening game in that despite all of its stats and history, it's just so difficult to know what is going to happen during the season.
In baseball, you have the Yankees (who are supposed to win the World Series or their fans jump off the Brooklyn Bridge in protest), and every one else. Most teams go into the season with hope springing eternal (and teams like Kansas City and Pittsburgh leave that hope in the Spring as any and all hope will be gone long before summer gets here). With the additions the Twins made this off season, and with hope of some improved seasons by players like Francisco Liriano and Delmon Young, the hope here is the Twins move past winning the division and actually win a playoff series or two, or three.
But with every chance of a player like Liriano and Young improving, there is also a chance some players will have off years. Justin Morneau's back might not be as healthy as we would hope. And of course the best closer in the game, Joe Nathan, is already shelved for the entire season.
There are also players with big question marks. J.J. Hardy was an all-star in 2007 and demoted to the minors last year. Which Hardy boy do we get to see this year? Francisco Liriano was back to his dominant self in Winter League, but he's shown signs of his habitual sloppiness in spring training. And both Pat Neshek and Jessie Crain have injured arms they'd like to put in their past.
With all of that said, it's my belief that the Twins will win the Central Division, and I don't believe it will be close. Many people are saying losing Nathan will doom the team, but it's my opinion the closer position is the most overrated position in the game. As good as Joe was at it, he earned a save in 92% of his chances while the league average is 87%. That's what, three games difference? And with this years team having the lineup they do, I just don't think we will see as many save opportunities as prior years.
I believe this team can score pretty close to one more run per game on average. They were at 5.1 runs per game last year and I don't think its a stretch to see 5.9 from this group. I can see Denard Span raising the bar and becoming one of, if not the, best lead off man in the game. The combo of him and Orlando Hudson should be able to get on base pretty often for the power-alley to knock them in for some runs. Joe Mauer should be his normal self, which means he once again could have people shaking their heads in disbelief at how good this kid is. Justin Morneau is my big question mark in the lineup. Michael Cuddyer should be similar to last year. Jason Kubel will most likely improve on last years numbers. Delmon Young, man, if this kid can play like he did at the end of last season, we could have a guy in the 7-hole hitting .330 with 30 home-runs and 110 RBI's. JJ Hardy gives us a guy in the 8th spot that could pop 25-home runs. The 9th spot could be interesting. Punto is the most loved and hated player on the roster. The guy is also amazingly inconsistent. How can one player bounce year-to-year like he has with a .290, .210, .284, .228 batting averages over the last four seasons. With the eight guys ahead of him, I'd be happy with him just having an average season. Then there Punto's platoon mate Jason Harris who could hit .290, which getting that in our 9th spot would be freakin fantastic. But will either of them even get much play time after the all-star break, or will Danny Valencia get his callup and take over third-base and the 9th spot in the lineup?
I also believe our starting rotation should be able to lower their 4.84 ERA from last year to something closer to 4.40. There is a lot of warranted talk about our starting rotation having a bunch of #3 starters and no ace or #2 starter. Having a rotation of #3 guys will make for a good regular season, but you really need that ace and #2 guy for the playoffs. Scott Baker has the 5th best win-percentage in the American League over the past three seasons. I'd like to think he can be a pitcher this year that can border that #1/#2 position. And if Liriano really does have his nasty junk back, he can easily be a staff ace.
I believe our defense should improve, with the addition of Hardy and Hudson up the middle, and Span sticking to Center Field instead of moving all over the outfield. I'd say you could argue the Twins could have the best middle of the field defense in the league with Mauer behind he plate added to Hudson, Hardy and Span.
The bullpen is a question mark, but in today's MLB, what team doesn't have bullpen questions? Relief pitchers seem to be the type that can dominate one year, and have no control the next. And I'd be willing to bet every single team in the league will change over at least 50% of their bullpen during the season. Losing Nathan right off the bat obviously hurts, and I don't believe Rauch will be the closer when we get to the dog-days of summer (Pedro Martinez perhaps?). But one thing is certain, the Twins have a history of finding closers, from Jeff Reardon to Rick Aquilara to Every Day Eddie to Nathan. That's been a pretty remarkable run. Maybe they are due a bad year from a closer? Maybe Rauch comes on and doesn't let anyone doubt the decision to put him there? It will be fun to watch it unfold as the season goes along.
To wrap this up, I think this Twins team has the chance at hitting 95-97 wins. Maybe with Nathan out, they get 93. Any of those should win the division. As easily as I can see the team getting those numbers, the ball might bounce the wrong way too often and we could see Detroit or Chicago taking the division. That's one of the fun things about being in the Central. It seems like every season the team that is supposed to win it falters and teams picked to struggle around .500 end up catching lightning and winning the division. For now though, I'll stick with my 95-97 win prediction.
No comments:
Post a Comment